Episode 1382: Pitchus Interruptus
Date May 30, 2019 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about a small way in which Willians Astudillo made the world better, baseball as a conversational icebreaker, Cody Bellinger’s incredible WAR pace, whether Bellinger is overshadowing the rest of the Dodgers (and Clay Bellinger), and a few of 2019’s other breakout batters, present a Stat Blast about Statcast no-hitters (and Statcast hitting streaks), then answer listener emails about whether playoff odds are fair to teams that appear out of the race and why we don’t see more pitchers pulled in the middle of plate appearances. Topics * Statcast no-hitters * No-hitters viewed as team accomplishments * How longshot playoff odds are projected * Unknown information when creating projections * Mid-count pitching changes * Batter ability to adjust during an at-bat Intro The Flying Burrito Brothers, "Cody, Cody" Outro Stephen Malkmus, "The Hook" Banter * Sam is currently bug bombing his apartment. Ben makes a comment about Sam preferring to kill crickets himself, calling back to Episode 94 when Ben overheard Sam stomping crickets in his garage. * A listener wrote in thanking Effectively Wild for their repeated discussions of Willians Astudillo. He talked about Astudillo at the start of a job interview and thinks it helped to make him memorable (and get the job). * Baseball as a conversation starter * Will Cody Bellinger have the best season ever by WAR? * Derek Dietrich and other 2019 offensive breakouts Email Questions * Aaron: "I started covering college baseball last year and have been surprised at how often I've seen pitchers pulled in the middle of an at-bat. I was at a game a few weeks ago when Duke, the road team, pulled their starter after he got to a 1-2 count. Duke's student assistant, who was in the stands to chart pitches, got some heckling from the crowd and justified the decision by saying their data shows the reliever was more likely to finish off that particular hitter with 2 strikes, but the starter was more likely to get to 2 strikes in the first place. (He struck him out on the next pitch, FWIW). I'm curious if you think we'll see this more often in MLB (or if we already have and I'm just missing it). It seems odd to me that college, where pitch-by-pitch tracking is way less consistent, would be in front of MLB on this. My best guess is it's an ego thing, easier to pull a soft-tossing 19 year-old in the middle of an AB than a major league pitcher. Are there other explanations for why this doesn't happen more often?" * Anthony: " I'm curious about long-but-possible playoff odds for projected-to-be-bad teams. For example, the Fangraphs playoff odds currently give both the Mariners and the Giants a 0.3% chance of winning a Wild Card. How should I rank the following four factors in terms of their contribution to these teams' nonzero odds? (Or are there other significant factors I'm overlooking?) 1) Lucky Breaks - Sometimes even bad teams catch good breaks and the ball bounces their way, so the projection systems are accounting for the possibility that all the lucky breaks could stack up to favor a team. 2) True Talent - It's possible that the play we've seen to date has been unlucky, and the projection systems fooled by some historically bad runs of luck for some players with some really good true talent. 3) A New Gear - Maybe everything we think we know is true, but players are going to develop between now and the end of the season in unforeseen ways. 4) The Other Guys Collapse - It could be that the team's projection is accurate, but other teams are going to see major injury or underperformance from here on out that ruins their seasons. Do you know to what extent the projection systems are accounting for reach of these factors in generating their odds?" Stat Blast * Sam reviews some information he found when writing an article about Statcast no-hitters. A Statcast no-hitter is a game where no batted ball had a greater than 50% chance of being a hit according to Statcast. * In the Statcast era there have been only 5 complete game shutouts that qualified as a Statcast no-hitter. * All the batted balls allowed in Max Scherzer's start on June 14th in 2015 had a cumulative hit probability of 1.6. This is the lowest of the Statcast era. Notes * Sam once interviewed Sally Ride and says this is the thing that most excites kids when he presents at Career Day in schools. * Sam excitedly says that there is a "fog of WAR" surrounding Babe Ruth's best season ever. * Clay Bellinger is the first player who ever signed an autograph for Ben. Bellinger played in just four seasons and made the World Series ever year (being a part of three winning teams). * When discussing mid-count pitching changes Ben and Sam recall Joe Girardi's decision to do this in 2015. That was discussed in Episode 713. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1382: Pitchus Interruptus * Hey Babe Ruth...meet Cody Bellinger by Mike Petriello * How Cody Bellinger could have the best season in MLB history by Sam Miller * Introducing a new kind of no-hitter by Sam Miller * Can Statcast help top 56-game hit streak? by Andrew Simon and Jason Bernard * The 65-win Cubs?!? tales from MLB's alternative timelines by Sam Miller * Sim City 1000000 by Sam Miller * That's The Way I Like It And I'll Never Get Bored by Sam Miller * Who needs October? The best moment for each out-of-it MLB team by Sam Miller * When We Say 70 Percent, It Really Means 70 Percent by Nate Silver * How Good Are FiveThirtyEight Forecasts? * Second-Guessing the Second-Guess by Ben Lindbergh * Girardi makes pitching change mid-at-bat by Alden Woods Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes